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In the fantasy sports world, there’s an old adage that it’s much better to avoid investing in an elderly player one season before his numbers plummet, rather than being caught off guard when the player’s decline is obvious and your fantasy team suffers as a result. Hey, I’m all for minimizing this risk, but I’m also not going to assume that every aging player will drop dramatically this season. The end may be approaching for Washington Nationals DH Nelson Cruz and St. Louis Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright, but “noon” is probably not here yet.
Cruz last failed to hit 30 home runs in a complete MLB season in 2013, when he was drafted outside the top-150 players in NFBC selections. Cruz hit 32 home runs while hitting.265 last season. The hitting average was an issue, and the most of the issues began following the late-July move to the Tampa Bay Rays. Cruz struggled in the latter two months of the season. Was he wounded in any way? Is there a difference? He was 40 years old at the time. Was it because he was 40 that he struggled? The Nationals evidently don’t believe so, as he’s been signed to serve as their DH and lineup spot guardian for Juan Soto. Cruz is among my top-100 roto players. I’m looking forward to a fantastic season.
Wainwright is going even later than Cruz, finishing just within the top 200 overall. On the ESPN Player Rater, he was ranked among the top-10 starting pitchers last season. With a 3.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 174 strikeouts, he won 17 games. Nobody expects those kinds of numbers to happen again, but it also seems ridiculous to pretend they didn’t. Prior to 2020, Wainwright changed his strategy, understanding out how to throw his off-speed pitches for strikes, throwing them more frequently, lowering his walk rate, and relying on the Cardinals’ good defense. Last season, he was 39 years old. So, what’s the point? Wainwright is among my top 100 all-time players, and I’m betting on him everywhere.
Value is important in fantasy baseball, especially when it comes to the often misunderstood “Do Draft” list. I research ADP and discover discrepancies between my thinking and, well, standard thinking. The rookies are adored by everybody. Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, and a slew of other players who have yet to fail in the major leagues are coveted by fantasy managers everywhere. They dismiss older players, even those who have established themselves to be statistically significant. Cruz had a rough run last season, and I have some reservations about both his exit velocity and his ability to remain healthy. Wainwright, on the other hand, had no such problems. Age is a recurring issue among them, as is bosses’ failure to notice them. I, on the other hand, do not.
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Not all of the guys that keep appearing on my fantasy teams are of the older generation. Some of them are even in their early twenties! The goal of this column is to identify value discrepancies in regard to the NFBC ADP. These are the players I’d go for in the proper situations. (I’m unable to utilize ESPN ADP since it covers points-based leagues.) We’d all want to choose top-10 players like Soto, Trea Turner, and Gerrit Cole, but their names aren’t in this column. That’s much too simple. Some players, like as Cruz and Wainwright, are, in my view, going too late in ADP. These are the individuals to be on the lookout for.
Houston Astros’ Alex Bregman (3B): Bregman hit.296 with 41 home runs in 2019 and has been a completely different player since then. Is that the end of it? Is this the end? Last season, Bregman battled wrist injuries and had offseason surgery. While we may be skeptical of future 40-HR seasons, he is still a quality talent, albeit one who is barely ranked in the top 100 in NFBC selections. I suppose I’m not getting it. Bregman may no longer steal bases, but he’s still a four-category fantasy possibility in the top 50.
Boston Red Sox’s J.D. Martinez, OF: On the 2021 Player Rater, he ended among the top-20 outfielders, and yes, he did play enough outfield to qualify. I’m puzzled why some people don’t think he can repeat now that he’s 34. Martinez had a difficult time in 2020. Many others did as well. In 2021, he was reintroduced to the spotlight. A 30/100 season with a high batting average is on the way once again. In roto leagues, he’s worth a top-50 slot, but he’s barely in the top 100 in NFBC ADP.
Atlanta Braves pitcher Charlie Morton: Morton, the oldest of the 17 pitchers to reach 200 strikeouts last season, showed no signs of aging at 37 years old, and his three complete MLB seasons — with three different teams — have been remarkably similar. Morton is a safe and dependable option, and although you may remember his fibula breaking in the World Series last season, he is OK now. In fact, he’s still underappreciated, and he’s one of my top-20 starters.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Angels of Anaheim: After an injury-plagued season, everyone wants to flee. Look at Rendon’s previous seasons, since he provided both power and batting average, which is a safe bet. When the Angels’ batters are healthy, as they are right now, they have a fantastic lineup. Rendon’s return may not be as strong as Bregman’s, but I’m not sure why so many people are so pessimistic.
Los Angeles Dodgers’ Max Muncy, 1B/2B: Muncy missed the playoffs due to an elbow injury, and he was supposed to start the season late, but that is no longer the case. He’s returned. He’s hitting, throwing, and doing it all at the same time. This is a multi-eligible player who has hit 35 home runs in each of the past three MLB seasons. In roto, Muncy is all over my lineups, and he’s in the top 100. Muncy’s Dodgers buddy Chris Taylor, Seattle Mariners 1B/2B, are among the other middle-infield types I’m receiving. Ty France and the Colorado Rockies’ second and third basemen Ryan McMahon is a character in the film Ryan McMahon.
Los Angeles Dodgers’ Blake Treinen, RP: Kenley Jansen is no longer with the team, and I find it difficult to think that manager Dave Roberts would make the ninth inning a committee effort. Treinen was the best reliever in the Dodgers’ bullpen last season, and he has a lot of experience closing games. Over be honest, I prefer Treinen to Jansen, but he should be a top-10 closer on selection day in any case. The Arizona Diamondbacks’ RHP is another closer I seem to suggest more than others. RHP Mark Melancon of the Philadelphia Phillies Red Sox RHP Corey Knebel Matt Barnes and RHP Devin Williams of the Milwaukee Brewers, who is worth a draft selection even if he doesn’t get a save.
Baltimore Orioles’ Trey Mancini, 1B: Mancini missed the 2020 season due to cancer, but he returned last season and blasted 21 home runs in 147 games. I believe he reverts to his pre-2020 form, hitting.270 and flirting with 30 home runs and 100 RBI. He may not be a top-100 choice, but as a corner infielder on a standard league roto squad, he isn’t awful. Chicago Cubs 1B Frank Schwindel (BABIP aside, it all seemed real to me! ), Red Sox 1B Bobby Dalbec (Triston Casas is assured nothing), and Oakland Athletics rookie 3B Kevin Smith, who will play, are three more corner infielders I tend to favor more than others.
San Francisco Giants pitcher Anthony DeSclafani: Everything about his unexpected 2021 season seems to be genuine to me. His FIP was almost identical to his ERA. His strikeout rate has risen to levels seen before to 2020. He was outstanding both at home and on the road, inducing more groundballs than in any prior season. In a pitcher’s park, he seems to be a safe bet, and he targets the top-200 choices. I’d also put money into his new teammate Alex Cobb. Young Twins Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, new Texas Rangers RHP Jon Gray (stunning for me, but he has legit skills), Brewers lefty Aaron Ashby, and several Astros, from ace Justin Verlander to Luis Garcia, Framber Valdez, and Jose Urquidy, are among the starting pitchers I seem to be getting in the later rounds.
Houston Astros’ Michael Brantley, OF: Batting average is still important, at least in leagues where it is. Brantley has batted.300 in four straight seasons, and his analytics suggest he was unfortunate to reach single digits in home runs last year. I believe he is capable of another 15-homer, 75-RBI season, but he will be selected so late in most drafts (outside the top 250) that there is little risk in trying to find out. Max Kepler of the Minnesota Twins and Dominic Smith of the New York Mets are two more outfielders that come to mind as final alternatives in five-outfielder setups. Plus, you can bet I’ll take a risk on youngsters like Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners (who may be fantastic — and available in April) and Josh Lowe of the Rays.
The “fantasy baseball draft” is a game that has been around for a while. It allows you to create your own team and compete against others in a league.
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